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Think Twice 千禧桥的教训

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（译注：直译为三思而后行）

When making a decision, how can we be sure to make the right choice?  做决策时，我们该如何才能确定自己做出了正确的选择？

Even the most intuitive people make dumb decisions now and then. Being “intelligent” or “smart” doesn’t make anyone immune to making a bad decision, explains author and investment strategist Michael J. Mauboussin in his book Think Twice. For example, he writes, even Stephen Greenspan, the author of Annals of Gullibility: Why We Get Duped and How to Avoid It, lost 30 percent of his retirement saving in Bernie Madoff’s infamous Ponzi scheme.

即便是直觉最准确的人，偶尔也会做出愚蠢的决策。作家暨投资略专家麦可．莫布新在《别让直觉作决定》（暂译）一书里指出，「睿智」或「聪明」的特质并不足以让人免疫于错误的决定。他写道，即便是《上当大全：上当的原因及避免之道》（暂译）的作者史蒂芬．葛林斯潘，也不免在伯尼．马多夫（译注：为纳斯达克证交所前主席，以类似老鼠会的手法诈骗全球投资者数百亿美元）的庞氏骗局中失去了百分之三十的退休存款。

If you want to improve your luck and make better decisions more often, Mauboussin writes, your best bet is to think twice and follow a few simple rules whenever you make a decision. By developing a few simple, yet counterintuitive habits, you are going to fare much better over the long run than if you stickwith simply trusting your instincts when making choices.

莫布新写道，如果想改善自己的运气，让自己更常做出好的决策，最好的方法就是在做决策的时候记得三思而行，并且遵循几条简单的法则。与其单纯信任自己的直觉，还不如培养几个简单又违反直觉的习惯，长期下来你的决策表现就会改善许多。

Mauboussin’s method for making better decisions is not easier than relying on your intuition, he explains, but it is more successful because your intuition can fool you into thinking your first instinct will be the right way to go. Instead of diving into your next decision headfirst, a more successful approach to better results is to do some planning first, which entails thinking about and avoiding the pitfalls that often trap many decision makers who think their gut feelings are infallible.

莫布新说，他提出的决策质量改善方法不会比仰赖直觉来得容易，但成功的机率却更大，原因是直觉可能对人造成误导，让人以为自己本能的反应就是正确的方向。与其一头栽进你的下一项决策，不妨事先做点计划，就可以让你比较容易获得较佳的成果。许多决策者都经常落入以为自己的直觉绝对不会错的陷阱，因此事先计划就必须思考这样的陷阱，以求避免犯错。

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now and then 有时; 偶尔 sometimes; occasionally

annals [ˋæn!z] n. 年刊; 年鉴; （学会等的）年报

gullibility [͵gʌləˋbɪlətɪ] n. 易受欺骗

dupe [dup] v. 欺骗，诈骗，愚弄

Ponzi scheme 庞氏骗局（一种最古老和最常见的投资欺诈形式，以不正常的高额回报来骗取投资者加入）

best bet  最佳抉择, 最稳妥的办法 the thing someone should do which is most likely to achieve the result they want

counterintuitive [͵kaʊntɚɪnˋtjʊɪtɪv] adj. 违反直觉的

fare [fɛr] v. 进展; 进行

headfirst [ˋhɛdˋfɝst] adv. 仓促地; 轻率地

entail [ɪnˋtel] v. 必需

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Believing that each of our problems is unique, Mauboussin writes, is often our first decision-making mistake. This common problem is apparent when executives remain eternally optimistic about the next corporate acquisition when experience shows that acquisitions are often dismal failures. He explains that simply considering outside views and the experiences of others can improve all decisions.

莫布新写道，我们决策时常犯的第一个错误，就是认定自己每次遇到的状况都是独特的。这个常见问题的鲜明例子，就是许多企业主管看待并购的态度。经验虽然显示并购常常导致极糟的后果，但企业主管却总是对下一次的并购满怀乐观。莫布新解释说，只要考虑一下外界的观点以及别人的经验，就可让各种决策获得改善。

Beware ‘Expert’ Opinions  小心「专业」意见

Failing to consider alternative is another way to make bad decisions, Mauboussin writes. “Tunnel vision” is created when we reduce our options instead of opening our minds to more choices or forget how hidden incentives can influence our decisions.

未能考虑替代方案，也是另一个导致不良决策的问题，莫布新写道。我们一旦限缩自己的选择，而不开放心胸考虑其他选项，或是忽略了潜藏动机可能影响决策的事实，就会陷入所谓的「隧道视野」（译注：亦即从隧道往外望所看到的狭窄视野，类似坐井观天或以管窥天）。

Overvaluing an expert opinion is another common pitfall for decision-makers, the author explains. Thanks to modern technology, we no longer have to limit our decisions to the opinions of a few experts. Today, Mauboussin reminds us, we can tap into more accurate computer models and powerful social networks that offer us the “wisdom of crowds” to help us make better decisions.

作者表示，过度重视专业意见又是决策者常犯的另一个毛病。多亏现代科技的发展，我们的决策不必再受限于少数几位专家的意见。莫布新提醒道，现在我们可以运用更精确的计算机模型以及更强大的社交网络，让「群众的智慧」协助我们做出更好的决策。

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acquisition [͵ækwəˋzɪʃən] n. （对公司的）收购，并购

tunnel vision 目光狭窄；以管窥天；井蛙之见 an extremely narrow point of view; narrow-mindedness 

overvalue [ˋovɚˋvælju] v. 对……估价过高；过分重视

tap into 利用 to take advantage of

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Another common decision-making mistake is failing to notice how much we are influenced by other people. Peer pressure can be powerful, so Mauboussin encourages us to make an effort to recognize the conscious and subconscious social influences that could be weighing on our choices. Other situational influences that can keep us from making the best decisions include the routines and structures that we have set up in our past. He writes that we need to learn to evaluate our habits first to determine whether they have stopped serving our needs for change.

另一项常见的决策错误，则是忽略了我们有多么容易受到别人影响。同侪压力的力量可能难以抵挡，所以莫布新鼓励我们辨认出可能左右我们决策的各种显性及隐性社会影响力。另外，我们在过去养成的习惯与模式，也是可能导致我们难以做出最佳决策的情境影响因素。莫布新写道，我们必须学会先评估自己的习惯，才能判定这些习惯是否有碍于我们对变革的需求。

The Millennium Bridge  千禧桥

We should also avoid basing our predictions for cause and effect on attributes instead of circumstances. Cause and effect are often very difficult to identify.

我们对因果关系的预测，应该是基于环境条件，而非事物本身的属性，而因果之间的关系通常非常难以辨认。

One example of this, Mauboussin points out, is the Millennium Bridge in London. It became an embarrassment to its creators almost immediately. It turns out that the well-paid engineers who built it failed to properly account for the effects of the lateral movement of many people walking on the bridge. They had planned for up to 156 people crossing the bridge at once, which would have had no effect. But when hundreds more crossed the bridge on opening day, a critical point was reached and the bridge began to sway. Although it was structurally safe, the bridge had to be closed just two days after it was built so it could be retrofitted to correct problems. The lesson learned: Never underestimate the power of rare but extreme outcomes when dealing with complex systems. Mauboussin writes, “Flag these systems when you see them, and slow down your decision-making procedures.”

莫布新指出，这种现象的一个例子就是伦敦的千禧桥。这座桥梁几乎一建好就让建造者尴尬不已，原因是打造这座桥梁的高薪工程师没有充分考虑到许多民众走在桥上所造成的横向位移作用。原本规划预计最高会有一百五十六人同时过桥，如此就不至于对桥梁造成影响。然而，千禧桥启用当天，同时踏上桥梁的人数却比当初的预计多出了好几百人，达到了临界点，导致桥梁出现摇晃的现象。尽管千禧桥的结构仍然安全，却在启用两天之后就必须暂时关闭，以便针对问题加以矫正改进。这起事件带来的教训是：面对复杂的系统，绝对不要低估罕见的极端状况所可能产生的效果。莫布新写道：「一旦遇到这种系统，别忘了标示出来，然后放慢决策的程序。」

By providing us with the tools to challenge our subconscious intuition, Mauboussin shows us how to recognize our problematic habits, take them into account when we make decisions and move past them to get to the better decisions and better rates of success on the other side.

莫布新为我们提供了挑战潜意识直觉的工具，藉此让我们了解如何辨认出自己的不良习惯，在做决策的时候纳入考虑，避开这些习惯。如此一来，我们即可做出较佳的决策，提高成功的机率。

−by Chris Lauer

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conscious [ˋkɑnʃəs] adj. (决定、行动等)有意的，刻意的

subconscious [sʌbˋkɑnʃəs] adj. 下意识的; 潜意识的

weigh [we] v. 对…有(重大)影响 to have consequence or importance

cause and effect 有因果关系的

attribute [ˋætrə͵bjut] n. 属性；特性，特质

lateral [ˋlætərəl] adj. 侧面的

flag [flæg] v. 打旗号表示 to mark with a flag or flags for identification or ornamentation

problematic [͵prɑbləˋmætɪk] adj. 造成困难的; 有问题的

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Vocabulary Focus

intuitive [ɪnˋtjʊɪtɪv] adj. 直觉的；有直觉力的 able to know or understand something because of feelings rather than facts or proof

immune [ɪˋmjun] adj. 免除的；免于……的 protected from or unable to be influenced by something, especially something bad

pitfall [ˋpɪt͵fɔl] n. 陷阱；圈套; 隐藏的危险 unexpected danger or difficulty

infallible [ɪnˋfæləb!] adj. 绝对正确的；永无过失的 never wrong or never failing

dismal [ˋdɪzm!] adj. 忧郁的; 凄凉的; 令人沮丧的 very bad

incentive [ɪnˋsɛntɪv] n. 动机 something that encourages a person to do something

peer pressure 同侪压力 the strong influence of a group on members of that group to behave in the same way, even if the behavior is no good

critical point 临界点；紧要关头 the point at which a crisis situation occurs and a critical decision must be made

retrofit [ˋrɛtrəfɪt] v. 改造；更新 to modify something by installing new parts

London Millennium Bridge Opening