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Getting Smart About Science 教你解读科学研究的秘诀

详细资料: 创建于 2009年10月21日; 最后更新于 2024年5月25日; 发布于 2012年7月02日; 作者：Mike Lee; 点击数：245

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Ideas on how to interpret scientific research 解读科学研究有门道

Every day, we sip a steady stream of health news about something we could eat or drink, and how it will help save us from some health nightmare – or help cause it. Avoid refined sugar. Take fish oil pills. Drink coffee.

每天，我们都会持续不断地接收到一些有关健康的讯息，告诉我们哪些食物或饮料能助我们远离健康上的隐忧──或是反而会害我们生病。比方说，要少吃精制糖，服用鱼油胶囊，或是喝咖啡等等。

So here’s the good news, according to experts who study disease and risk: You can pretty much ignore almost all of these health bulletins, with a few exceptions:

而好消息就是，根据研究疾病防治和患病风险的专家指出：大可忽略那些健康快讯也不会有多大影响，除了以下少数情况例外：

Exercise, eat a balanced diet, don’t be fat, drink only in moderation and, whatever you do, don’t smoke.

例如，大家应该多运动、均衡饮食、控制体重勿超重、饮酒也应有所节制；此外就是，无论如何都别抽烟。

This is not to say science is pointless. After all, it was the painstaking work of scientists that conclusively proved smoking is a health disaster.

这并不是企图推翻科学界的论点，也不是暗示科学研究结果都毫无意义可言，毕竟还是因为有劳苦功高的科学家，不断努力地研究，最后才能断言证实吸烟有害健康。

But being a good consumer of science news means understanding how scientific studies work. Sometimes, findings that sound spectacular may be completely useless to you – though important to other scientists working on the bigger picture.

不过，如果你想要当个善于解读科学讯息的高明消费者的话，就意味着你必须了解科学研究的运作方式。有时，乍听之下似乎很重大的发现，其实却可能对你来说毫无用处──那些发现，可能只对从事大型研究的科学家才具有意义。

Coffee: Good or bad? 咖啡：究竟是好是坏？

A recent study published in the American Journal of Epidemiology followed 39,000 middle-aged Japanese people for 13 years and found that the people who reported drinking one or more cups of coffee a day were about half as likely to get oral, pharyngeal or esophageal cancer as the others. That sounds like a great excuse to order another cappuccino, since these are some of the deadlier cancers.

最近在《美国流行病学期刊》发布的一项研究，追踪了三万九千日本中年人长达十三年之久，结果发现，每天喝一杯以上咖啡的人，罹患口腔癌、喉癌或食道癌的机率大约只有其他人的一半。这听起来像是鼓励我们多点一杯卡布其诺的好借口，因为上述癌症属于死亡率较高的癌症。

But before you do, consider that the study’s findings tell us only about relative risk – the cancer risk for coffee drinkers in relation to non-coffee drinkers. Half as much risk sounds like a lot, but the bottom line is that very few people in either group got cancer. In other words, the absolute risk is low, coffee or no coffee.

不过，在你开口点咖啡之前，可要多加三思，因为研究结果只告诉我们相对上的患癌风险──也就是咖啡族和不喝咖啡的人相比之下的患癌风险。虽然，患癌机率只有一半，听起来好像把风险减少很多了，但更重要的结果却是，无论是咖啡组或对照组，后来真正得到癌症的人数其实少之又少。换句话说，也就是无论你喝不喝咖啡，绝对性的患癌风险其实都非常低。

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sip [sɪp] v. 从…中呷吸; 小口喝

nightmare [ˋnaɪt͵mɛr] n. 可怕的经历，经常的恐惧 an event or condition resembling a terrifying dream

bulletin [ˋbʊlətən] n. 新闻快报

moderation [͵mɑdəˋreʃən] n. 适度；节制

pointless [ˋpɔɪntlɪs] adj. 无意义的

epidemiology [ˋɛpɪ͵dimɪˋɑlədʒɪ] n. 流行病学

pharyngeal [͵færɪnˋdʒiəl] adj. 咽部的 having to do with the throat

esophageal [͵isəˋfædʒɪəl] adj. 食道的 relating to the muscular tube that carries food from the mouth to the stomach

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It’s also important to realize that studies like this are done for reasons other than to change your coffee habit. The idea is to examine unresolved questions in science, and it’s rare for any individual study to settle them.

同样重要的是，必须要了解，像这类研究的目的，其实并不是为了要让一般人改变喝咖啡习惯，而是为了其他原因，用意是为了要厘清科学上一些悬而未决的问题，而个别的研究很少能一劳永逸地彻底解答这些疑问。

Scientific knowledge is like a snowball rolling down a hill. As more studies produce more supporting evidence, the snowball grows until eventually doctors start asking patients to alter their behavior and public health officials call for changes.

科学知识就好比是从山坡上滚下来的雪球，随着愈来愈多的研究都找到了支持论点的左证，这雪球就随之愈滚愈大，直到最后终于获得确切的结论，促使医生纷纷开始要求病患改变他们的行为和习惯，而公共卫生官员也会呼吁大众改变生活方式。

The case for a link between smoking and cancer is a really big snowball. The case for a link between coffee and cancer is a very small one. And there are a lot of small snowballs out there.

有关吸烟和癌症之间的关连的雪球，因为有许多相关左证的支持，目前已经滚成一个极大的雪球了，但有关咖啡和癌症之间关连的雪球，目前还很小，而其他还有各式各样的小雪球存在着，还没有长大。

Thinking critically about science news 以批判性的眼光看待科学讯息

When assessing health news, think of yourself as a consumer of information and decide whether you’re buying. Harvard University professor and author Kimberly Thompson offers some basic advice:

在你评估该不该相信一些健康讯息时，不妨把自己视为购买这些讯息的消费者，然后再决定自己是不是愿意买账。「哈佛大学」教授及作者金柏利．汤普森提供了一些基本建议：

1. Get empowered. Ask yourself: Whoput out the information, and do they have an agenda? Am I getting the whole story? Who were the people in the study? Am I really like them or not? Do I have a health condition that means the results don’t apply to me? 全盘掌握相关讯息：问问自己：「是谁放出这样的讯息，他们这样做背后有什么目的吗？我掌握所有相关讯息了吗？研究的对象究竟是谁？我和那些人有没有类似之处呢？我目前的健康状况，是不是意味着那项研究结果不适用在我身上呢？

2. Consider tradeoffs: If eating a specific food might raise your risk slightly of getting some disease, consider all the risks and benefits. Do you love that food? Consider that adding something to your diet – like coffee – for a health benefit might mean also adding some health risk, like consuming many thousands of extra calories in cream and sugar. 多考虑一下，为了研究结果而改变生活习惯，是否值得：如果吃下某种特定的食物，可能会令你得到某种疾病的风险略微增加，那么不妨把所有相关风险和益处都纳入考虑，再决定要不要继续吃那种食物。像是，你真的很爱吃那种食物吗？此外，也别忘了思索一下，把某种食物加进日常饮食中──例如咖啡──以便得到健康上的益处，但可能同时也会为自己平添某种健康上的风险，比如喝咖啡的同时，也会加进奶精和糖，而导致多吸收数以千计的卡路里。

3. And always remember, “there is not a magic bullet,” Thompson said. It’s what you do over time – whether you exercise, eat well and so on – that matters. 永远别忘记，「没有所谓的万灵丹」，汤普森指出，大家必须长期、持续不间断地身体力行──无论是做运动、良好饮食习惯等等──才会看到成效。

－by Trine Tsouderos

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