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The Shaky Science of Earthquake Prediction 地震预测行不行？

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In the early hours of September 21st, 1999, a devastating earthquake unexpectedly struck Taiwan, killing nearly 2,500 people and leaving thousands more homeless. If the deadly event had been foreseen, many lives might well have been saved. ___1___

1999年9月21日凌晨，一场毁灭性的地震无预警地袭击台湾，夺走了大约2,500人的性命，也使得数千人无家可归。要是能预见这起致命的事件，无数条生命或许就可以挽救。遗憾的是，虽然对于地震的成因，人们已有相当明确的了解，但地震预测却从来不是一门严密的科学。

Of current earthquake-forecasting methods, by far the most intriguing is observing animal behavior. Howling dogs, swarming insects, and startled birds flying around wildly are routinely reported prior to earthquakes. Experts suggest that this is due to certain animals noticing tiny tremors unfelt by humans. ___2___ Theories center on the possibility that tremors release gases trapped underground that subsequently react with the atmosphere. In the past, attempts to use observations of animals and other natural phenomena to accurately predict earthquakes have proven fruitless, however.

在现有的地震预测方法中，最能引起大众兴趣的显然是观察动物的行为。地震发生之前，常会传出如狗儿嚎叫、昆虫突然大量涌现，以及鸟群因受到惊吓而失控乱飞的异象。专家认为，这是因为某些动物能够察觉人类所感受不到的微小震动。颜色怪异的云层是另一个常见、但专家尚无法解释的地震相关现象。地震理论主要在探讨下述的可能性，亦即地壳震动释放了蓄积在地底下的气体，而这些气体随后又与大气产生作用。然而，过去利用观察动物以及其他自然现象来准确预测地震的尝试，结果大多都没有成功。

___3___ Scientists construct mathematical models that project upcoming earthquakes. Alternatively, with the VAN method, metal rods are placed in the ground to monitor electrical signals that might indicate an earthquake. Neither of these methods has been effectively demonstrated to work, however, and seismologists place greater trust in comparatively straightforward earthquake early warning systems. ___4___ Nonetheless, even early warning systems are not without their drawbacks. As they cannot measure an earthquake’s force, they are prone to false alarms.

「模式预测」(pattern prediction) 是一项利用先前地震的统计资料来预测未来地震较科学的方法。科学家建构出能预测即将来临的地震的数学模式。另外还有VAN法，利用插入地面的金属棒，监测显示地震即将来临的电波信号。不过，以上两种方法尚未被证实有效，因此地震学家较信任相对简单直接的地震预警系统。藉由侦测初期的微弱震波这种系统可以在地震发生数秒前发出警报，让我们有足够的时间疏散到安全之地。但是，就连这些预警系统也并非万无一失。因为它们无法测量地震强度，所以很容易产生假警报。

___5___ In regard to these destructive events, perhaps the best advice is to learn proper safety procedures rather than try to guess when the next one will strike.

自古以来，人类就一直在寻找能精准预测地震的方法，可惜这个目标仍然遥不可及。至于这类毁灭性事件，与其猜测下一个灾难何时会来袭，或许最好的建议是学习正确的安全措施。

−by James Laughton-Smith

(A)   By detecting weak initial shockwaves, such systems can warn of an earthquake many seconds before it strikes, providing enough time to get to safety.

(B)   Since ancient times, man has been searching for a way to successfully predict earthquakes, but this goal remains out of reach.

(C)   Unfortunately, while the causes of earthquakes are clearly understood, predicting them has never been an exact science.

(D)  It is reported that rats, snakes, and insects leave their holes and head for safety several days before a destructive earthquake.

(E)   Pattern prediction, a method which makes use of statistics about previous earthquakes, is a more scientific way of calculating future seismic events.

(F)    Strange colored clouds are another frequently witnessed but as-yet-unexplained earthquake-related phenomenon.

Vocabulary

单词发音

prediction [prɪˋdɪkʃən] n. 预言；预报

deadly [ˋdɛdlɪ] adj. 致命的

foresee [forˈsi] v. 预见, 预知

startled [ˋstɑrt!d] adj. 受惊吓的

prior to 在...之前

observation [͵ɑbzɝˋveʃən] n. 观察；观测

upcoming [ˋʌp͵kʌmɪŋ] adj. 即将来临的

monitor [ˋmɑnətɚ] v. 监控；监测

nonetheless [͵nʌnðəˋlɛs] adv. 但是；仍然

drawback [ˋdrɔ͵bæk] n. 缺点，短处

be prone to 易于,有…的倾向

in regard to 关于 considering or relating to something

exact [ɪgˋzækt] adj. 确切的，精确的

statistics [stəˋtɪstɪks] n. 统计资料

calculate [ˋkælkjə͵let] v. 计算；估计

More Information

单词发音

shaky [ˋʃekɪ] adj. 不可靠的; 没有把握的

forecast [ˋfor͵kæst] v. 预测，预言

by far 显然 without a doubt

intriguing [ɪn`trigɪŋ] adj. 吸引人的, 有趣的

howl [haʊl] v. 嗥叫；怒吼

swarm [swɔrm] v. 成群地移动（或飞行）

tremor [ˋtrɛmɚ] n. 震动；微动

atmosphere [ˋætməs͵fɪr] n. 大气（层）

fruitless [ˋfrutlɪs] adj. 无成效的; 无结果的

project [prəˋdʒɛkt] v. 预测，推断

alternatively [ɔlˋtɝnə͵tɪvlɪ] adv. 要不然；或者

seismologist [saɪzˋmɑlədʒɪst] n. 地震学家

straightforward [͵stretˋfɔrwɚd] adj. 明确的，简单的

shockwave [ˋʃɑkwev] n. 震荡波；震波; 〔爆炸﹑地震等引起的〕冲击波

out of reach 力所不及的, 够不着的 unattainable

seismic [ˋsaɪzmɪk] adj. 地震的；因地震而引起的

as yet 到现在[当时]为止 up to the present time; up to now.

921大地震紀實

Earthquake prediction: a science on shaky ground

Answer