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Economists Sound The Alarm About A Possible Recession; McDonald`s Restaurant Chain Ends Its Business In Russia.

CARL AZUZ, CNN 10 ANCHOR: Economic experts are increasingly sounding the alarm about a possible recession. What that is and why it matters are our

first topics this Tuesday. I`m Carl Azuz.

A popular definition of recession is two consecutive quarters of decreasing economic growth -- sounds technical and maybe not something a major

concern. So why is it? A healthy economy is always growing. It`s always expanding.

So, if you have at least two quarters in a row, basically a six-month period or more when the economy is shrinking, you`re likely to see company

sales drop, gross domestic product drop exports drop, people losing jobs and having trouble finding new ones and consumers spending less money on

goods.

That`s not all happening right now. The U.S. economy did contract or shrink in the first quarter of this year, but consumer spending was strong in the

winter and early spring and the jobs picture is overall a good one. The unemployment rate is very low and the economy has added 400,000 jobs or

more in each month of 2022. These are some reasons why President Joe Biden said last month that he wasn`t concerned about a recession anytime soon.

However, there are economic storm clouds over America. Inflation is a big one we`ve talked about. The jump in prices of many things we buy hit their

highest levels in decades last year and they`ve only gotten worse since then.

The president`s critics blame his policies for driving up oil prices which are a major factor in inflation, and they say government spending from the

$1.9 trillion COVID relief package he signed last year also caused inflation to get worse. That package came in addition to those passed

during the Trump administration.

Inflation is expected to be a major issue in the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, one that could hurt President Biden`s fellow Democrats who

currently control both chambers of Congress.

America`s Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, says keeping prices in check is really its job not the president`s, but even the Fed`s been criticized

for its response to inflation.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CHIEF BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Has this booming pandemic economyrun out of steam?
 

run out of steam 忽然失去动力；顿时泄气

Despite widespread job growth, a housing market frenzy, and a monster gain on the S&P 500 last year, many economists and CEOs now warn a recession
 

monster [ˋmɑnstɚ] adj. 巨大的，庞大的

could be looming. As the Federal Reserve tries to tame high inflation by aggressively hiking interest rates, even the head of the Fed himself admits
 

tame [tem] v. 制服，使顺从

central bankers probably should have acted sooner.

JEROME POWELL, FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMAN: Hindsight says we should have moved earlier. We`re going to use our tools and we`re going to get this
 

hindsight [ˋhaɪnd͵saɪt] n. 事后的认识，事后聪明，后见之明

done.

ROMANS: Now, the challenge for the Fed is this: slowing the economy enough to get inflation under control, but not so much that it lurches into
 

lurch [lɝtʃ] v. 突然倾斜

recession. It`s the search for the so-called soft landing, but it won`t be easy.

BILL DUDLEY, FORMER PRESIDENT AND CEO, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK: The chances of pulling off are very, very low because they have to push up

the unemployment rate. And in the past, when you`ve pushed up the unemployment rate, you`ve almost never been able to avoid a full-fledged recession.
 

full-fledged [ˋfʊlˋflɛdʒd] adj. 成熟的

ROMANS: As recession fears grow, investors are dumping stocks and other risky assets, everything from the tech sector to retail stocks to Bitcoin

has plunged. Other factors like Russia`s invasion of Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China, they aren`t helping the outlook.
 

outlook [ˋaʊt͵lʊk] n. 展望，前景

So, if the U.S. economy does slide into recession, what shape will it take?

There`s an alphabet soup of possibilities.
 

alphabet soup 字母形面片汤, （因含有许多符号或缩略语等而极难懂的）代号语言。

The V-shaped curve is the best-case scenario. It`s a sharp drop followed by an equally sharp recovery. Often that results from a one-time shock to the

economy, like we saw at the beginning of the pandemic.

The U-shaped curve is a more drawn-out recession that takes a few years for GDP to fully recover. Now, that occurred in the mid-1970s during the oil
 

drawn-out [ˋdrɔn͵aʊt] adj. 持续很久的；拖长的；冗长乏味的

crisis, and a period of stagflation.
 

stagflation [stægˋfleʃən] n.【经】停滞型膨胀；膨胀性萧条

Then there`s the dreaded L-shaped or hockey stick recession. That`s the worst case. That`s when a prolonged recession turns into a full-blown
 

dreaded [ ˈdrɛdɪd] adj.（用作定语）可怕的，令人畏惧的

full-blown 完全成熟的；充分发展的；具有一切特征的

depression. The Great Depression is a classic example.

But some economists argue the financial crisis which started in 2007 and took nearly six years for a full recovery also met that L-shaped

definition.

There`s also the W, when the economy bounces back quickly only to slide right back into recession.

And, finally, there`s the K. Now that`s when different sectors of the economy rebound more quickly than others creating two separate recovery

lines. Some economists argue that`s what really happened after the start of the pandemic when low-income workers were the last to feel the economy come

back.

That`s a lot of letters. But remember a recession is just a possibility at this point. Still, it`s when economists are treating very seriously.

KEN ROGOFF, FORMER IMF CHIEF ECONOMIST: I was talking to a bunch of professional forecasters the other day and one after another said they

can`t remember an environment where it was this uncertain. The lockdowns in China on top of an already fragile economy, war in Europe, galloping
 

on top of【口】紧接着某事; 紧靠着某物

inflation in the United States, you have the makings of a perfect storm global recession. It`s a risk. It`s not a certainty, but it`s a pretty scary risk.
 

making [ˋmekɪŋ] n. 组合；形成

ROMANS: A risk that American families are increasingly beginning to fear.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

AZUZ (voice-over): Ten-second trivia:

Speedee was once a mascot of which restaurant chain?

Checkers, Wendy`s, Steak `n Shake, or McDonald`s?

In the 1950s, Speedee smiled on signs and bags for McDonald`s.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

AZUZ: In Russia, hundreds of foreign companies have cut back on operations, suspended them for the time being or quit doing business there
 

cut back 少; 剪 [裁，缩] 短;  急转方向

altogether since Russia`s military invaded Ukraine on February 24th.

McDonald`s which had temporarily shut down almost 850 restaurants in Russia, just announced it`s leaving the country for good. The burger chain
 

for good 永远, 永久

says the humanitarian crisis caused by the war in Ukraine, plus an unpredictable operating environment contributed to its decision to sell its

Russia business. The jobs of more than 60,000 employees are now in question and McDonald`s could take a hit as its 155 locations in Russia and Ukraine
 

in question 正在谈论的(问题等)

take a hit 遭受打击；遭受重击

combined accounted for nine percent of its revenue last year.

The decision closes the door on more than 30 years of McDonald`s operations in Russia.

Here`s a very different sounding CNN report from when that door was opened.
 

sounding [ˋsaʊndɪŋ] n. 调查

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

REPORTER: In a dismal season for the Soviet economy, a golden vision of hope on the horizon.
 

dismal [ˋdɪzm!] adj. 忧郁的；沉闷的；凄凉的；阴暗的；阴沉的

Wednesday, after a dozen years of preparation, McDonald`s opens its largest restaurant in its 52nd country. Payment in rubles only.
 

ruble [ˋrub!] n. 卢布（俄货币单位）

Unlike the new hard currency stores which have made life seem better for foreigners and privileged Russians but left the great majority resentfully out in the cold.
 

hard currency 强势货币

resentfully [rɪˋzɛntfʊlɪ] adv. 怨恨地，忿恨地

Inside, room for 700, with an international motif that combines Big Ben with Big Mac.
 

motif [moˋtif] n.（文学、艺术作品的）主题，中心思想；（服装设计等的）基本图案，基调

 

Big Ben（英国伦敦议会大厦顶的）大笨钟

For the novice, instructions on what to order with your cheeseburger, maybe a milkshake blurring in the name morozni (ph) cocktail, ice cream cocktail.
 

novice [ˋnɑvɪs] n. 新手，初学者

milkshake [͵mɪlkˋʃek] n. 奶昔；泡沫牛奶（牛奶、冰淇淋等混搅起泡的饮料）

Six hundred young Soviets have had a month of training in a way of working unfamiliar to the Soviet Union, fast and hard. The usual order of the day
 

fast and hard: definite and not to be changed, avoided, or ignored

here is service with a snarl, but McDonald`s has set out to change that with a zeal heartly (ph) missionary.
 

snarl [snɑr!] n. 咆哮；吼叫

GEORGE COHON, FOUNDER AND SENIOR CHAIRMAN, MCDONALDS OF RUSSIA: We`re certainly going to make money here. We`re not evangelists, so though. It`s
 

evangelist [ɪˋvændʒəlɪst] n. 福音传播者

sort of neat to see the young crews and to see them smile and say, "thank you, please come back again".
 

neat [nit] adj.【美】【口】美妙的，很棒的

REPORTER: And the Soviet kids in uniform sure look like converse.
 

converse [ˋkɑnvɝs] n. 谈话；交谈

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: People, they are very nice. They`re all smiling. And as you know, in Moscow, not in every restaurant you can find smiling

people.

REPORTER: A meal here will cost two or three-hours wages for the average Soviet citizen, but he may think it`s worth it.

Here`s the competition: a place that sells pelmeni, meat-filled dumplings, guaranteed to stay with you.

Muscovites are used to queuing up for something to eat. The difference at McDonald`s is they promise there`ll be something left when you get to the
 

Muscovite [ˋmʌskə͵vaɪt] n. 莫斯科居民

queue up 排队等候

head of the line.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(MUSIC)

AZUZ: Two weeks ago, we told you about the longest glass bottomed bridge on or above the Earth. Today, we`re taking you across the world`s longest

suspension footbridge which stretches for a little under half a mile but over a deep mountain valley in the Czech Republic, about 312 feet over it.
 

footbridge [ˋfʊt͵brɪdʒ] n. 人行桥

It`s mainly supported by six cables. It took two years and almost $8.5 million to build. Pedestrians say it gives a great view, but it does shake.

So, if you`re looking to shake a leg, shake, rattle, and roll, shake it up, shake your groove thing, shake, shake, shake your booty, and hopefully not
 

shake a leg 快一点，抓紧一点

shake anything off the bridge, it could be kind of fun if you`re not shaking with fear or shaking at the knees after getting roped into a

suspenseful shaky bridge shake off.

I`m Carl Azuz and that about spans all the bridge puns I got left.

Massabesic Middle School, shout out to our viewers in Waterboro, Maine, for subscribing and leaving a comment at youtube.com/CNN10.

END