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The Future of Transportation 未来世界的交通运输

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One expert offers insight to new ways of getting around without damaging the environment  看专家如何提供洞见，探讨让大家能享受到四通八达的交通运输、却不至于破坏自然环境的新方式

Here’s one key to Daniel Sperling’s vision for the future of mobility. He doesn’t like to drive ….. petroleum-powered, single-occupant vehicles. His new book: Two Billion Cars: Driving Toward Sustainability, is a plan for how we can do better.

丹尼尔．史波林对未来交通运输（译注：移动性引申为交通运输）的愿景，有个关键要素：那就是他讨厌开车…这里指的是开那种以石化燃料为动力、而且车上只坐了驾驶一个人的自用车。他出的新书《二十亿辆车：驶向永续性之路》（暂译）中描绘出如何改进现有运输方式的蓝图。

With coauthor Deborah Gordon, Sperling lays out a path to cleaner cars, greener fuels and – the biggest change – a richer menu of transportation options, from “smart” microbuses to shared neighborhood vehicles.

他和本书的共同作者德博拉．葛登共同打造出一条以环保汽车和绿色燃料为主的可行之道──而其中最大的改革──就是提供了更多琳琅满目的交通运输替代方案，从「智能型」小型巴士乃至于街坊邻居汽车共乘制都包括在内。

“We can provide a transportation system that’s cheaper and provides a better quality of service and more environmental benefits than the system we have now,” he said.

「人类应该推出新的运输系统，不但造价要更省钱，而且还要能提供更优质的服务，此外也要能享有更多益于环保的好处，好用来取代目前现行的运输系统，」他表示。

Sperling, 57, is the founding director of the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Davis. He is California’s Air Resources Board’s acknowledged expert on vehicles and fuels.

五十七岁的史波林是「加州大学戴维斯分校」「运输研究院」创办人兼院长，也是加州「空气资源委员会」备受认可的车辆及燃料专家。

A push for new policies  推动制定新政策

Sperling has been thinking for years about many of the policies the air board is now enacting. Fuel efficiency in the United States hadn’t improved since the early 1980s. Detroit was captivated by fast-selling SUVs, and a hodgepodge of policies had pushed one alternative fuel, then another, to little lasting effect.

史波林本身对该委员会目前实行的许多政策，早已苦思多年了，因为他发现，美国境内在减少油耗这方面的成果，其实从一九八０年代早期以后，就一直停滞不前，不见改善。汽车业重镇底特律对生产热销的休旅车简直入了迷（译注：底特律为美国汽车业大城，引申为美国汽车业，由于休旅车很好卖，因此车厂一窝蜂抢着生产休旅车，但休旅车耗油往往会比一般轿车来得高，对减少油耗有反效果），大杂烩般的政策偏偏又像是多头马车，以致于在政策推动下诞生的替代燃油，虽然一个接着一个问世，最后却往往雷声大雨点小，而成效不彰。

“I was frustrated by the nature of the public debate,” said Sperling. “It was not a very well-informed discussion.”

「各界对于相关议题所进行的公开辩论，却令我大失所望，」史波林说道，「因为从那些讨论中听得出来，发言的人其实都相当外行，并不熟悉内情。」

But by the time the book was released in December, the gears had begun to turn. New federal standards are set to improve fuel-efficiency to 35 mpg by 2020, and state officials are pushing for even higher targets. A new state law requires land developments to be designed to reduce driving. State regulators are hustling to cut California’s greenhouse gas emissions – roughly 40 percent of which come from vehicles – back to 1990 levels by 2020.

不过，等到他写的书在十二月发行时，情况就开始改观了，因为不但联邦政府制定了燃油效益新标准，限制一般车辆在二０二０年时，油耗必须能维持在每加仑汽油可跑三十五哩的标准，而州政府官员甚至还想进一步推动设立更高的标准；此外，一项新制定的州法律则规定，土地开发案必须纳入能减少人们开车机率的设计，才有可能被核准放行，而州政府管理当局还急着想减少加州温室气体排放量──其中约有四成是来自于车辆──目标是希望在二０二０年能把加州温室气体排放量减少到和一九九０年一样的排放量。

单词发音

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get around 随意走走; 旅行

key [ki] n.（解决问题的）线索；秘诀；答案

single-occupant vehicle 单一乘客的自用车 a privately owned and operated vehicle, which is mainly for the driver’s own personal use

occupant [ˋɑkjəpənt] n. 乘坐者; 占用者

sustainability [sə͵stenəˋbɪlɪtɪ] n. 持续性；能维持性；永续性

lay out 规划，布置，设计（场地或建筑）; 阐述；讲解；说明 to make a detailed plan for; to display

acknowledged [əkˋnɑlɪdʒd] adj. 公认的

SUV 多功能越野车(= sport utility vehicle) a very large vehicle that looks like a small truck and can be driven where there are no roads

mpg 每加仑行驶的英里数 miles per gallon

hustle [ˋhʌs!] v. 急速行进; 【口】拼命做

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Balancing reason and vision  理性与愿景兼顾

Much of the book, Sperling said, is informed by conversations over decades with executives in global auto and oil industries. Those connections are part of what makes his transportation dreams, radical as some are, feel plausible. He knows what drives corporate decision makers, and recognized how quickly – or how slowly – their companies can realistically change.

史波林表示，本书大半篇幅灵感都来自于他数十年来和全球汽车界和原油界大老之间的对话。他对交通运输所怀抱的梦想，让人觉得格外可行，部份原因也正是因为他有和业界培养出的长期关系作为后盾，即使其中有些愿景相当激进前卫，也无碍于事。他很了解，哪些诱因才能打动企业决策者的心，而对于企业在顾及现实面的情况下进行改革的速度的快或慢，他也心知肚明。

“He has been a voice of reason and vision,” said David Cole, an industry expert. At the same time, Sperling has earned respect from the mainstream environmental community, which cheered his appointment in 2007 to an air board spot held in the past by auto industry insiders.

「他可说是理性与愿景的发声筒，」业界专家戴维．寇尔如此表示。而在此同时，史波林也嬴得了主流环保社群的尊敬，史波林在二００七年获推举出任加州空安会一席职位时，就嬴得了环保界的喝采叫好，而过去那席职位一直是汽车界大老的囊中物。

“I think he has a much broader perspective and therefore does command more respect on the board,” said Bill Magavern, director of Sierra Club California.

「我认为，由于他具有宏观的眼界，所以能嬴得委员会成员的由衷敬意，」「西拉协会」加州分会会长比尔．马加温指出。

A look into the future  展望未来

Two Billion Carstakes its name from the number of vehicles projected to be on the world’s roads by 2020. If we get to that number with our current “transportation monoculture” of petroleum-burning cars and trucks, Sperling argues, we’ll end up stuck in ever-worse traffic, scouring the planet for oil and polluting the atmosphere.

《二十亿辆车》书名出自二０二０年全球大街小巷所有车辆的预估总数，而如果届时车辆总数果真达到那个数字，同时还延续着目前那种「不够多样化单一交通运输文化」，也就是石化燃料汽车和卡车满街跑的情景不改，那么史波林要警告大家，人类最后一定会陷入愈发恶化的交通运输困境而无法自拔，被迫跑遍全球搜寻可作为燃料的原油，进而对自然环境造成莫大污染。

For vehicles, Sperling expects that most of the basic technology we’re likely to see in the next 15 years has already been invented. In many cases, it’s on the way to show rooms.

史波林预期，未来十五年内将会陆续问世的汽车业基础科技中，有大部分其实都已经发明出来了，而这些科技有绝大部份都陆续在汽车展示厅里公开亮相。

The most noticeable change, he expects, will be that nearly every automobile eventually will use batteries and an electric motor. Some vehicles will draw power from a wall socket, others will blend the electric drive with a combustion engine like today’s hybrids. Further in the future, at least some will get their electricity from a hydrogen fuel cell.

此外，他也预期，未来最显而易见的改变将会是，几乎所有汽车最终都将采用电池，并使用电力驱动马达。有些车辆可能必须从墙上设立的插座来汲取电力，而其他则可能会结合电力驱动和内燃引擎，就和现今的混合动力车一样。再放眼更远的将来，预期至少会有部份车辆将透过氢燃料电池来取得电力。

Toughest of all, Sperling says, will be figuring out how to develop cheap, convenient alternatives to driving solo.

史波林表示，其中最艰巨的挑战，将会是如何研发出省钱又便利的替代方案，来改善目前独自一人驾车而浪费油耗的现象。

－by Jim Downing

单词发音

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inform [ɪnˋfɔrm] v. 赋(思想或特质)于; 渗透入

radical [ˋrædɪk!] adj. 极端的; 过激的; 激进的; 彻底的

realistically [͵riəˋlɪstɪk!ɪ] adv. 切合实际地

cheer [tʃɪr] v. 欢呼，高呼；向……欢呼

appointment [əˋpɔɪntmənt] n. 任命，委派 the job or position to which such a person is appointed

spot [spɑt] n. 职位，职务 a job in an organization

insider [ˋɪnˋsaɪdɚ] n. 圈内人; 内部的人

command [kəˋmænd] v. 博得; 赢得 receive, get

project [prəˋdʒɛkt] v. 预计，推断

monoculture [ˋmɑnə͵kʌltʃɚ] n. 单一文化; 单一栽培；单一经营 a society that lacks diversity

scour… for something  搜寻, 寻找, 追寻…to search through or over thoroughly

scour [skaʊr] v. 急速穿过；走遍（某地）搜索

socket [ˋsɑkɪt] n.【电】插座；插口

combustion [kəmˋbʌstʃən] n. 燃烧

hybrid [ˋhaɪbrɪd] n. 混合动力车；油电混合车 a vehicle that uses two kinds of power sources, such as both fuel and electricity

hydrogen fuel cell 氢燃料电池 a device that produces electricity from the gases hydrogen and oxygen, and never loses its charge as long as the gases are supplied

单词发音

Vocabulary Focus

mobility [moˋbɪlətɪ] n. 流动性；移动性；【社】流动 the ability to move freely

enact [ɪnˋækt] v. 制定（法律）；颁布（法案）to put something into action, especially to change something into a law

hodgepodge [ˋhɑdʒ͵pɑdʒ] n. 混杂物；大杂烩；一团糟 a confused mixture of different things

well-informed [ˋwɛl ɪnˋfɔrmd] adj. 见多识广的; 有见识的 having a lot of knowledge about a particular subject or things in general

plausible [ˋplɔzəb!] adj. (借口或解释)有道理的; 可信的 seeming likely to be true, or able to be believed

mainstream [ˋmen͵strim] adj. & n. 主流派(的)  referring to the way of life or set of beliefs accepted by most people within a society

solo [ˋsolo] adv. 单独地 alone; without other people

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