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As The World Turns 世界改变了

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A funny thing has happened on the way to globalization: Innovation now trickles up from emerging to advanced economics. And it may be the way of the future  在全球化的过程中，发生了一件耐人寻味的事情：那就是如今创新风潮反而是从新兴经济体开始，然后再传到先进经济体，而这很可能将成为未来的趋势。

We know how innovation works. We get iPhones; those less fortunate overseas get whatever we recycle. Innovation has always been about people in rich nations getting the latest stuff and the rest of the world getting our castoffs.

我们都很清楚创新究竟是如何运作的。我们自己可以拥有iPhone，但不像我们这么幸运的外国民众就只能捡我们淘汰的剩货再利用。过去所谓的创新，一直以来都是先进国家民众能享受到最新发明的产品，而世界其他地区的人民就只能捡我们抛弃不要的东西。

So why is Nokia looking to use Kenya to debut a free classifieds service (think a mobile-phone version of Craigslist), complete with a first-ever feature that lets people shop using voice commands to browse for goods?

那么，为什么如今「诺基亚」公司却要选在肯亚首推免费的分类广告服务(不妨试着在脑海中想象一下就是有点类似「克格清单」的服务，只不过要改成手机版本）（译注：Craigslist命名源自于创办人Craig Newmark，他原本在一九九五年透过电子邮件列表来告诉亲朋好友当地大事记，后来渐渐演变成一个推出各种分类广告的网站），破天荒地推出让手机用户能声控浏览商品的功能呢？

The answer is that the traditional model of developing new products is quietly reversing course. Call it “trickle-up innovation,” where ideas take shape in developing markets first, then work their way back to the West. “If it’s radically innovative and reduces costs, it’s going to get looked at and will accelerate.” says Michael Chui, a McKinsey consultant. As the credit crunch forces frugality on companies everywhere, it should turbocharge the shift toward developing markets.

答案是，研发新产品的传统模式正悄悄地逆转从前的过程。不妨称之为「逆行涓滴的创新」（译注：即和涓滴效应[trickle down effect]相反的模式。涓滴效应指先从先进国家或富裕阶层开始试行发展，之后再往下渐次推广到贫穷国家或贫困阶层，使雨露均沾；而逆行涓滴效应则相反，是先从较落后的国家或贫穷阶层开始试行，成功后再往上推广到富裕国家或富有阶层），也就是创新点子先在开发中市场酝酿成形，然后再回传到西方世界。「如果这种创新极度先进，而且又能节省成本，那么就会格外受到注意，有助加速研发问世的脚步，」「麦肯锡」公司顾问麦可．崔指出。随着信用紧缩（译注：意指金融危机发生后，各家银行纷纷紧缩银根，使企业贷款愈发困难）迫使各地企业不得不更加缩衣节食，而这也会更加速各家企业纷纷把创新流程转移到开发中市场中来试水温。

Nokia has for several years seen most of its growth in the developing world, so it was quick to notice when poor Kenyans started using their cell phones for banking as well as paying for things. “People aren’t saying, ‘Give me the web-based version of this,’” say Jonathan Ledlie, the Nokia researcher developing Mosoko (mo for “mobile,”soko is Swahili for “market”).

「诺基亚」这几年来眼见大部份成长动能都来自开发中世界，因此很快就注意到，贫困的肯亚人开始会用他们的手机来处理银行账户事宜，此外也会透过手机来缴费。「当地民众并没有开口说：『给我行动上网版的吧。』」负责研发Mosoko（mo代表行动的英文mobile，而soko的意思是斯华西里语的「市场」）（译注：斯华西里语为非洲部份地区通行的语言，在肯亚和坦尚尼亚等地为官方语言）「诺基亚」研究员强纳森．莱德利指出，「因为他们压根儿就没用过行动上网版的啊。」

Ledlie’s friends in the United States all tell him they’d love to use Mosoko. But Ledlie is skeptical. “I tell them, ‘Oh, c’mon, you’d just look at some mash-up of Craigslist over Google Maps.’” In Kenya, Mosoko’s competition is for-sale signs hammered up on posts or pricey classified ads.

莱德利的美国朋友全都告诉他，他们一定都会很爱用Mosoko，但他本人倒是抱持着怀疑的态度，「我告诉他们说，『哎，少来了，你们只会想浏览某个结合了克雷格清单和谷歌地图的服务（译注：例如在美国受欢迎的Housingmaps网站就结合了克雷格清单和谷歌地图的功能）罢了。』」在肯亚，Mosoko的敌手是贴在邮筒上的出售告示或索费高昂的分类广告。

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trickle up 向上逆流; 向上涓敛 the opposite of trickle down

Craigslist 在线分类广告的网站 a network of online advertisements for jobs, housing and various services

first-ever [͵fɝstˋɛvɚ] adj. 破天荒第一次（或第一个）的

take shape 成形；体现

McKinsey 麦肯锡公司 a firm that serves as an advisor to some of the world’s leading businesses and focuses on solving issues of concern to senior management

crunch [krʌntʃ] n. 艰难局面;【口】关键时刻；危机

Swahili 斯华西里语 the official language of the people of coastal eastern Africa

mash-up 混搭; 混搭式应用; 混合技术 a combination of content from multiple sources

hammer [ˋhæmɚ] v. 用锤击; 锤打

post [post] n. 柱; 桩; 杆

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Changing strategy  改变策略

Infosys COO S.D. Shibulal is a fan of trying out innovations in emerging markets – he calls them “blank slates” – in part because it doesn’t cost so much if an idea fails. He learned that the hard way during the 1990s Internet boom, when an Infosys spinoff, OnMobile, tried and failed to sell U.S. wireless carriers on plug-and-play services such as mobile-advertising support and ringtones. OnMobile pulled back to India, where it became the largest provider of such services and is now expanding internationally. “It’s inevitable,” Shibulal says, that “innovation will start moving both ways.”

「印福思科技公司」营运长席布拉尔就很热衷于在新兴市场测试创新的点子──他称之为「一张白纸」（译注：slate原指写字用的石板）──部份原因在于，一旦点子最后功败垂成，也没多大损失。他是在一九九０年代因特网蓬勃发展时期，很辛苦地学到了宝贵的功课，当时「印福思」分割衍生出来的子公司「在行动」（译注：spin-off正式名称为比例分配型公司分割）尝试推销美国无线通信业者的即插即用服务，像是行动广告支持和手机铃声等。「在行动」后来撤回到印度，并成为全印度提供这类服务的龙头企业，如今还进军国际。「不可避免地，」席布拉尔表示，「创新的过程会开始两头同时并进。」（译注：从先进国家起始并拓展到开发中国家，以及从开发中国家测试并拓展到先进国家）

Innovation won’t always trickle up, of course. At Nokia, Ledlie isn’t sure something like Mosoko will ever break through the West’s cluttered retail market. But he’s confident that Nokia has a proving ground for voice recognition in a sales application. Add, Ledlie says. “there’s trickling sideways.” If it works in Kenya, it should work in other developing markets where cell-phone penetration far exceeds desktop Internet. Harold L. Sirkin, coauthor of 2008’s Globality: Competing With Everyone From Everywhere for Everything, cites some successful “sideways” examples, including Brazil’s Natura, a cosmetics firm that bested Western companies on its home turf and has expanded throughout Latin America and now Europe, and China’s Goodbaby, which has 28 percent of the U.S. stroller market.

毋庸置疑地，创新并不一定都能透过「逆行涓滴」的方式告捷。「诺基亚」的莱德利不确定，像Mosoko这类的尝试是否真能抢攻进西方国家竞争激烈的零售市场，不过，他倒是对「诺基亚」销售导向应用主打的语音识别在市场测试水温的能力，相当信心满满。此外莱德利表示，「还是有旁侧涓滴的可能性（译注：指有别于由先进国家推广到开发中国家的涓滴效应，以及从开发中国家拓展到先进国家的逆行涓滴效应之外，还有另一种在开发中国家之间相互拓展的可能性）。」若是在肯亚能出击成功，那么在其他开发中市场也一定能依样画葫芦，因为这些地区的手机渗透率远高过藉由桌面计算机上网的普及率。二００八年出版的《全球性：和全世界所有人争夺万事万物》（译注：globality〔全球性〕为作者自创字，书中把全球化定义为美国把产品的研发和服务外包到海外其他国家，而globality则是经全球化之后的下一个阶段，这时开发中国家已经开始能和美国并驾齐驱一较高下）一书中，作者之一的哈洛德．Ｌ．瑟金引述了几个成功的「旁侧涓滴」的成功例子，包括了巴西化妆品公司「纳突拉」，在本土击败了众家西方对手企业，而中国的「好孩子」品牌则拿下了美国折迭式婴儿车市场百分之二十八的市场大饼。

Trickle-up trends  逆行涓滴趋势

Four factors are changing the traditional stream of innovation:  有四大因素改变了传统的创新流程：

• Developing markets have low-cost, high-quality workers who can both create and execute great ideas.  开发中市场拥有工资低廉的优质劳动者，他们不但能想出绝佳的点子，也有足够能力付诸执行。
• These markets have hard-to-reach consumers who force companies to come up with new ways to serve them  在开发中市场里，其实很难把触角延伸到消费大众，这反而迫使各家企业不得不绞尽脑汁才能想出服务消费者的新招。
• Emerging-market consumers don’t want Western retreads, but their own unique products and services, some of which may also appeal to Westerners.  新兴市场的消费者对西方国家旧瓶装新酒的产品不屑一顾，但却相当青睐本国独树一格的产品和服务，而这当中有些产品可能也会令西方国家民众眼睛为之一亮。
• There are suppliers in developing markets who are rapidly accessing developed markets.  开发中市场的有些供货商正快速地把触角延伸到已开发市场中。

−by Michael Fitzgerald

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COO 营运长 Chief Operating Officer in a corporation, company or agency

try out 试验, 试用

slate [slet] n.（书写用的）石板

learn (something) the hard way 通过自己的(痛苦)经验学到 to learn something by experience, especially by an unpleasant experience

plug-and-play 即插即用的（计算机业界的一种标准，让硬设备能在安装时自行辨识，而不必由使用者设定）

cluttered [ˈklʌtɚd] adj. 混乱的; 乱七八糟的

proving ground（新事物、新观点的）实验场所，试验场合 a situation or place where a new theory, practice or machine can be tested

sideways [ˋsaɪd͵wez] adj. & adv. 向旁边(的); 从旁边(的)

best [bɛst] v.【口】打败；胜过

stroller [ˋstrolɚ] n.【美】折迭式婴儿车

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Vocabulary Focus

castoff [ˋkæst͵ɔf] n. 被丢弃的人，废弃物 something that you give away because you no longer want it

classifieds [ˋklæsəfaɪdz] n. 分类广告 small advertisements that are put in a newspaper or a magazine, usually to sell or buy something, or to find or offer a job

frugality [fruˋgælətɪ] n. 节约; 朴素; 节俭 the act of being careful when using resources such as money or food

turbocharge [ˋtɝbo͵tʃɑrdʒ] v. 增强(功能), 加快(应用程序的工作速度等) to accelerate a process or speed something up

spinoff [ 'spɪnˌof ] n. 副产品; 派生产品 a product or company that develops from another more important one

inevitable [ɪnˋɛvətəb!] adj. 不可避免的；必然（发生）的 certain to happen and unable to be prevented

home turf 本土市场 the area that a person or group considers its own

retread [riˋtrɛd] n. （书、电影、歌曲等的）翻版; 翻新 something that is being used again, perhaps in an altered form

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