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The World’s Biggest Casino 全世界最大的赌场

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繁體中文譯本

The stock market is often likened to a casino and in a sense it is. But there is a fundamental difference: In a casino, the house ultimately wins, whereas with markets, the investor usually wins eventually – but there are provisos.

股市常常被比喻为赌场，在某些方面它确实如此。不过有个基本差别：在赌场里最后总是庄家赢，但是在股市通常投资者赢──不过必须有附带条件。

First, winning at stocks requires the investor to assess both the risk and the potential returns. The “risk” is simply the probability that you’ll lose your money. A company may be considered risky either for systemic reasons – which apply equally to all companies in a given industry or geographic area – or for company-specific reasons such as uncompetitive products or poor management. As a rule of thumb, the riskier the company, the greater the potential returns … or losses.

要赢，首先投资者必须评估风险和潜在的投资报酬。「风险」简单的说就是你输钱的可能性。某家公司被评为高风险，可能因为整体系统因素──譬如某个产业或某个地区里的所有公司都如此──或是公司个别的缘故，譬如产品竞争力不强或管理不善。一般的经验法则是，风险愈高的公司，利润愈大…不过损失也愈大。

Most importantly, you can’t count on a quick buck with stocks. For example, one dollar invested in the US stock market in 1900 would be worth over US$10,000 today. Then again, that same dollar invested in Nasdaq at the peak of the tech bubble in 2000 would now be worth just 33 cents. You can usually rest assured that any company that does not go belly-up will pay off in the long run. But as renowned economist John Maynard Keynes once quipped, “In the long run, we’re all dead.”

尤其重要的是，在股市里不能靠股票快速营利。譬如1900年投资到美国股市的一元如今值一万元【注】。再者，同样的一元投资到2000年科技股泡沫高峰时的那斯达克股市中，如今则仅值33分。你通常最能确定的就是倘若公司没倒闭，最后终能得到报酬。不过，正如同知名经济学者约翰．梅纳德．凯因斯妙语所述：「缓不济急，终究一死。」

【注】：1900年以来美国市场年平均报酬率为9.8%

Vocabulary

单词发音

liken [ˋlaɪkən] v. 把……比作[（+to）]

in a sense 在某种意义上 considering a situation in a particular way

proviso [prəˋvaɪ͵zo] n. 但书；附带条件

assess [əˋsɛs] v. 对……进行估价，评价

rule of thumb 基本原则; 经验法则; 行事法则

count on 依靠, 依赖, 信赖; 指望

rest assured  放心 to be assured; to be certain

belly-up 破产的，倒闭的; 死的

pay off【口】(尤指冒风险的政策、做法等) 带来好结果, 成功, 行得通

quip [kwɪp] v. 讥讽；嘲弄

Sentence of the Day

Chad had naively assumed that he would soon be making money hand over fist.

查德很天真，以为他自己很快地赚大钱。

hand over fist 大量地, 不费力气地, 既稳又快地

課文講解

Raymond and Jess occupy adjacent cubicles in an office:  雷蒙和婕丝两人在办公室里是相邻的隔间：

R: I can’t take it any more – I’m out!

我受不了──我要退出了！

J: Out of what?

退出什么？

R: The market. My portfolio’s down 3 percent on the week and practically 10 percent on the year. I might as well just hit the casino. At least I’d get free drinks from them.

股市啊。我的投资标的本周降了百分之三，实质上等于今年掉了百分之十。还不如去赌场里摸一把呢。至少还有免费饮料可喝。

J: The way you play the market, there really wouldn’t be much difference. You’re always taking a gamble on dicey new start-ups, like that Bre-X thing in Indonesia. Blue chip stocks and index funds are the way to go.

以你玩股票的方式，其实没有太大差别。你总是赌在冒险的新兴企业上，像是宣称在印度尼西亚挖到黄金的那家B公司【注】那种。其实蓝筹股和指数型基金【注】才是比较稳妥的选择。

R: Hey, no risk, no reward. In the old days, I couldn’t seem to go wrong. While your money was rotting away safely, I was on my way to joining the ranks of the nouveau riche.

嘿，没有风险，哪来获利。以前我是决不会选错的。当妳的钱安稳躺着逐渐缩水的时候，我已经朝跻身股市新贵的路上迈进。

J: My index funds are vastly diversified across several markets; they were performing quite nicely during and after the tech bubble. I just don’t obsess about my stocks.

我的指数基金有平均分散到好几个市场去；不论是科技泡沫化期间或之后，它们表现都还不错。我不会对我的股票念念不忘。

R: Right, you’re a ‘buy and hold’ investor who’s happy with a 10 percent average annual return.

对的，你属于那种「买了抱得久」型投资人，平均有10%年收益就很高兴的了。

J: Remember the fable of the tortoise and the hare? My money also benefits from compound interest. Yours doesn’t.

还记得龟兔赛跑的故事吗？我的钱还有复利收入，但是你的没有。

R: Could you be any more boring?

妳有完没完，烦不烦人啊？

J: Sure, I could babble on about my stocks incessantly ….

当然，我可以滔滔不绝地一直讲我的股票…

【注】：一家涉嫌诈欺的加拿大股票上市公司，该公司宣称在印度尼西亚挖到价值200亿美元的黄金矿脉。

【注】：指数型基金－基金的组合尽量安排接近全部的完整指数（譬如道琼指数或那斯达克指数），费用比共同基金便宜，因为共同基金的交易次数频繁。

－by Charles Yonts

Vocabulary

单词发音

cubicle [ˋkjubɪk!] n. 小隔间

portfolio [portˋfolɪ͵o] n.（投资者持有的）全部有价证券，投资组合

might as well 不妨,倒不如

dicey [ˋdaɪsɪ] adj. 不确定的, 冒险性的

start-up 新运作的公司

blue chip 绩优股

index fund 指数基金；指数型基金

rot away 变得瘦弱; 烂掉

nouveau riche【法】暴发户

diversify [daɪˋvɝsə͵faɪ] v. 把（资金）分投在几家公司内

obsess [əbˋsɛs] v. 使着迷; 使缠绕; 使心神不宁

fable [ˋfeb!] n. 寓言

tortoise [ˋtɔrtəs] n.【动】陆龟；龟，乌龟

hare [hɛr] n. 野兔

babble [ˋbæb!] v. 唠唠叨叨

incessantly [ɪnˋsɛsntlɪ] adv. 不断地，不停地

Sentence of the Day

Slow and steady wins the race.

稳步慢行终究会赢得锦标